US/Africa Relations: Critical Minerals, Geopolitics to Drive Trump’s Second-Term Africa Policy

As Donald J Trump prepares to take power again for a second non-consecutive term on January 28, questions are being asked about how the US will engage with Africa.

Tibor Nagy, the former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, and Ambassador Rama Yade, Senior Director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, have offered insights into what they see as potential policy stances of the second Trump administration on Africa and what Africa must do to protect its interests in the face of a fresh global scramble for the continent’s resources.

“It’s very difficult to imagine or guess what the new administration could do regarding the promises during the campaign, but we can build from what he did during his first term and maybe from what his advisors say about Africa,” Yade said during a conversation on the Voice of America, VOA.

Trump never personally visited Africa during his first stint at the White House, but his wife, Melania, and Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State, did. However, Trump welcomed two African leaders to the White House: Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria and Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya. His administration did not host a US-Africa summit; meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin spectacularly kicked off a series of Russia-Africa summits, first in Sochi in 2019.

Faced with growing competition from China, the first Trump administration came up with the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and launched the Prosper Africa initiative to “support US investment across the continent, grow Africa’s middle class, and improve the overall business climate in the region. And in all of this, critical minerals, necessary for the energy transition may guide Trump’s second term’s policy direction in Africa.

“I do believe that the critical minerals and Africa is home to 30% of critical minerals, will be key for the next administration for two reasons. First, the importance of the energy transition, of course, and two, because the competition with adversaries like China or Russia and others is so strong that it’s impossible for the United States to ignore the African continent, no matter who the president is,” Yade said.

Critical minerals are minerals that are essential for modern technologies and industries but have a high risk of supply chain disruption. They are key to the global low-carbon future. The continent holds 55% of global Cobalt reserves (key for electric vehicles and Energy storage).

47.65% of Manganese reserves (needed for many green technologies such as concentrated solar power, wind, hydro, and geothermal while also being used in electric vehicles and for energy storage)  and 90% of global  Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) reserves, which are critical to the adoption of green hydrogen, and for decarbonizing difficult sectors such as heavy transport, heating, and industry.

Yade believes these resources have placed Africa at the heart of global geopolitics as the US, China, and Russia compete for their control.

“China is the first trading partner of Africa and has been for 20 years,” Yade said.

“Russia is a rising star in Africa,” Yade noted, and explained that the Kremlin has used the problems in the Sahel to “gain more ground, more credibility.”

She noted that the second Trump Presidency will not only have Russia and China to face in Africa. Increasingly, regional and middle powers such as  Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Emirates, Turkey, India, and  Indonesia are increasingly partnering with African countries, “ which means that Africa has options now.”

“Africans have options. They have the possibility to partner with any country depending on where their interests are, and that’s something that is very important,” Yade said.

Ambassador Tibor Nagy, the former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, warned that the US can’t continue with its past policy of “lecturing” Africans.

It’s that approach and the idea of always pushing for democracy when what the people need is legitimacy that has led the US to lose significant ground in Africa.

Recently, protests broke across the Sahel, particularly in Niger, asking US troops to leave. And as Western troops depart, Russia is stepping into the vacuum. Tibor Nagy contends that the Biden administration did the wrong job in the Sahel and that Trump could do things differently despite his American First policy.

“I think the United States mishandled the entire Sahel during the past number of years,” Nagy said, explaining that the Biden administration was “selectively hypocritical” in its characterization of the military takeovers in the Sahel.

“We called Ouagadougou a coup, we called Bamako a coup, with Niger, we waited and waited and waited, and then we called it a coup, and then Chad, we never called it a coup, and the people on the ground realized that. They saw through that, and as a result, the people were very angry with the United States.”

“We tended to lecture the people who came into power, telling them what they did wrong, and as a result, we lost out on Niger. We lost two air bases that cost about $300 million, and when the people came out to protest, none of the signs said we want elections now. What they said was ‘we want stability, peace’, and then across all of Africa, people want jobs.

“When those kinds of coups happen, what they don’t need is to be isolated. That’s when they need engagement. That’s when they need countries like the United States and others to talk to them so that something positive can happen. When you ignore them, when you block them out, when you lecture them, that’s when you have relations that are ruptured. Americans get kicked out, and of course, the Russians are always ready to come in. They can come in very quickly.”

He said that during the second Trump administration, there will be more reality in how the US deals “with those governments because we can talk democracy, democracy, democracy. What the people are really looking for is legitimacy.”

Nagy said Trump’s transactional approach to politics could also benefit Africa because that would translate to a focus on economics, trade, and investments- a smart departure from US historical policy towards Africa that has always been about development aid, humanitarian aid, and many lectures.

“If you’re talking about real partnership, it means business, it means trade, it means listening, you know, that’s a new word for Americans is to listen.”

“And yes, Africa has options,” Nagy said.

Yade explained that Africa can leverage its options to demand a greater say at the Security Council, reforms to the Bretton Woods Institutions, and better articulate its needs at the G20.

But the continent must also deal with the expectations disconnect between an aging leadership and a burgeoning youth. Nagy said the youths “are not so much into aid and that kind of approach of sympathy, but they want jobs, they want business, they want investment.”

He claimed that the viewpoint of the youths in Africa aligned with the views of Donald Trump “because, when the first Trump administration came, we called it a youth tsunami because, in our view, it was one of the greatest forces coming out in the world in the 21st century. And people were not paying enough attention to it. And when you talk to the youth and what they want is jobs, jobs, jobs. They’re online. They can see what young people in the other parts of the world are doing, the kind of jobs they have, and that’s exactly what they want. And that’s exactly what they should have.”

Edited by John Akuroh, with contributions from Benjamin Ngah and Ngwa Shu Nyamboli.